Category Archives: Insights

Fitch Affirms South Africa at ‘BBB’; Outlook Negative

Fitch ratings agency decided to leave South Africa’s rating unchanged at BBB on Friday evening. It maintained its negative outlook and pointed to the weak GDP growth forecast (which is largely driven by continuing electricity supply constraints) as a key driver. It also cited the heavy reliance on the external funding of the current account deficit as a key risk. South Africa’s reliance on portfolio and debt inflows increases its vulnerability to emerging market uncertainty in the face of a hawkish Fed.

Continue reading Fitch Affirms South Africa at ‘BBB’; Outlook Negative

SARB MPC Meeting

The South African Reserve Bank met today, and once again gave us valuable insight into how the South African masters of money (well at least masters of the rand) are thinking about the country, the globe, inflation, production, consumption and unemployment.

I know the statement is long, and by no stretch of the imagination is this a page turner, never-the-less you’ll find the full text of the Monetary Policy Committee statement below. Do I expect you to read it? Of course not. So why reproduce it? Because I’ve highlighted just the few bits you actually should read. So, give it a quick skim…

Continue reading SARB MPC Meeting

Africa must lead next technology innovation

By Walter Baets and Sifiso Dabengwa

It is said that when cell phones first came to Nigeria, the traffic in Lagos improved overnight. The reason: people no longer had to drive across town to speak to their friends or conclude a business deal. In a country without a comprehensive fixed-line communications network, the advent of mobile was liberating. It, quite literally, had the power to change the dynamic of an entire city.

The story illustrates what we often hear and say: technology has the potential to change things – dramatically and for the better. MIT senior lecturer and influential thinker Otto Scharmer puts technology as one of eight “acupuncture points” for institutional innovation with the power to update the economic system so that it can operate more intelligently and for the benefit of more people.

But he is not talking about technology as usual. More than two decades of technology hype and one technology bubble have taught us that technology in and of itself has limitations. And despite its pervasiveness, many are still waiting for the life-changing impact of technology to reach them.

In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the fact that nearly two-thirds (65%) of households in 23 countries had at least one mobile phone in 2013, as estimated by Gallup, has not yet liberated these countries from poverty and inequality. According to recent data from the Afrobarometer, which is based on the views and experiences of ordinary citizens, roughly half of all Africans experience at least occasional shortages of basic needs such as clean water, food and medical care, and 44% experience regular shortages of cash.

The truth is, we have a tendency to over-estimate technology in the short term and underestimate it in the long-term – the bubble of 2000/2001 taught us that lesson rather viscerally. But despite that short-term correction the long-term reality is inescapable: computers have permeated our lives; mobile has saturated our day-to-day. Now the convergence of these two technologies is set to propel us into a new era of technology innovation where everything – the way we learn, the way we collect data, the way we interact, check on our politicians, even the way we sleep and eat – are up for re-negotiation.

The next wave of technology development will no longer be about building a telecommunications network or computing industry – but building on these to create whole new industries and sectors. The innovators of the future will be shaping value-adding services, which use these resources to truly transform lives and experiences. What GSMA calls the “dawn of a new mobile ecosystem”.

This presents us with unprecedented opportunity to craft a new and better future. And in Africa, where a booming economy and expanding middle class are luring more investors – including many of the technology giants – to our shores, the opportunities are profound.

To capitalise on these however, we need, as Scharmer says, “to reinvent how we develop technologies and empower all people to be makers and creators rather than passive recipients.”

Social inclusion and economic equity must be the watchwords for the next wave of technology innovation on this continent. Whether it is financial inclusion or access to education – impact on the end user; the people and communities who benefit from these services must be top of mind.

Technology companies then – especially those who are looking to expand into emerging markets – need to find the business models that support the mass roll-out of effective technology solutions to markets at the bottom of the pyramid. And it is not about just giving consumers what the companies think they might need. The failure of Intel’s YOLO trial, a cheap smartphone running Android, which proposed to bring cheap devices to the “masses”, is a case in point.

In developing the right products and services, local knowledge will be key; the leaders in the field recognise that not everyone in Africa needs or wants to play Angry Birds or Candy Crush. This is why IBM invested heavily in a research centre in Nairobi in 2013. The company knows that research for Africa, solving Africa’s “grand challenges” and delivering commercially viable products that also impact on people’s lives, has to be done “on the ground, in Africa”.

Microsoft – another key tech investor in Africa – speaks a similar language. Its 4Africa initiative is seeking, says Fernando de Sousa who heads the initiative, to prove the value of technology as the enabler for development. “This is about being on the ground and creating huge consumers. There’s no debate about the fact that our objective is enabling economic development.”

Companies with their roots in Africa will have an advantage in the coming technology boom, and the rise of technology innovators in Africa – from, a young startup that is rolling out a trial of its mobile e-learning service to 75 schools in Nigeria to Aweza, a South African translation app that uses crowdsourcing translations to weed out inaccuracies and aims to leverage the growing mobile arena and encourage cultures to interact across their defined lines – are a testament to this.

From these we see that the kind of people driving this innovation are also different. It is no longer enough just to have technology skill, the new tech entrepreneurs will be those who are eager to explore the world, who are able to work in future uncertainty and complexity – they will be young and savvy enough to understand technology, but business-minded enough to know how to turn this into a value-adding service or product.

Investing in and developing this generation of entrepreneurs to create these industries in Africa will become a focus of the new era of technology – for business and training institutions alike. They will be looking to identify the right people – and then capacitating and supporting them. Partnerships will be key here. The 2014 SEED SA Symposium, a multi-stakeholder forum to foster social and green entrepreneurship in Africa, warns that one of the key challenges for African entrepreneurs is securing partnerships with technical experts, and research institutions in particular, to ensure cross fertilisation.

Complex challenges demand people and organisations who can see and work across silos and boundaries, and the simple truth is that collaboration opens up networks and shares skills, ideas and human capital for the benefit of more people. Working together, especially when the collaborators bring different skills to the table, can create stronger outcomes. When different areas of expertise collide – magic can happen.

Into this space, exciting hybrids are already emerging. Novel partnerships, such as those recently concluded between the UCT Graduate School of Business and the MTN Group and Silicone Cape and FNB, are exploring new forms of business innovation and challenging traditional roles of business in society to unlock greater value for every day Africans.

What these partnerships have in common is the conviction that in Africa, there is no shortage of ideas and talent – from high-tech research institutions to grassroots entrepreneurs who are finding novel applications for existing technology to tackle local challenges.

There are increasing examples around the world from MIT’s Media Lab to Canada’s Mitacs, that demonstrate that deliberate collaboration for innovation can be hugely significant. Africa needs to build more such initiatives so that technology hype can be turned into reality for millions of African citizens.

John Kelly, IBM’s head of research goes one step further. He believes that there is an opportunity here “for Africa to move, and move first, to this new era.” In the same way that mobile penetration leap frogged over traditional telecommunications infrastructure, Africa can jump straight to the tech frontier, without worrying about adapting old systems to cope with the data it creates.

Today, 353 million Africans are dialled in. What greater value will come when the disruptive force of technology is given structure and purpose and is properly informed by context?

If we get it right, the impact of technology can move beyond pockets of success that are showcased in the annual reports of technology multinationals to actually shifting the fortunes of the continent. 

Walter Baets is the Director of the UCT Graduate School of Business. Sifiso Dabengwa is the Group President and CEO of MTN. The two organisations have recently signed a major three-year deal to invest in the future of innovation on the continent.

This article was originally published in Business Report (Sunday Tribune) on 22 February 2015.

The One Simple Moving Average Every Gold Trader Should Know

The One Simple Moving Average Every Gold Trader Should Know

The bears have their claws out again. By last Friday’s close the gold price tumbled from $1,292/oz to $1,249/oz. But, I believe, the yellow metal’s abysmal performance could present the first decent buying opportunity in a long time…

How could a chartist buy gold in this market?

Below is an old chart gold analysts have mulled over for years. It shows just one technical indicator: The 144-day moving average.

The One Simple Moving Average Every Gold Trader Should Know
The One Simple Moving Average Every Gold Trader Should Know

Source: Saxo Capital Markets

Now why the dollar/gold price has decided to pick the 144-Day Simple Moving average as its key support and resistance level in the last two major movements is anyone’s guess.

But there’s no question it’s been remarkably effective in predicting the correct “accumulation” points for gold bugs in the last five years. Between January 2009 and 12 December 2011, this mysterious support line held without fail. It was tested and held a total of 26 times, showing only one false break, which lasted only three days at the very beginning of the movement in January 2009.

For almost three years traders have used this indicator with uninterrupted success.

The line was first breached on December 12th 2011. And the resulting 9% correction was a clear indication the trend had changed. The signal was a clear exit from the metal and traders could have closed positions safely with a strong reversal on the 25th of January 2012.

The bear market was then established and this same moving average began predicting each lower high in gold’s subsequent 34% slump. Ironically, it was Valentine’s Day in 2014 when traders of the 114 Simple Moving Average began to rekindle their love of gold. This was the first day in over a year the dollar gold price managed to trade consistently above the line.

Since that day, the price has skidded along the 114 SMA. And over the next three months, gold tested the line another 14 times without breaking.

This is a clear signal gold is once again in a consolidation phase. Interestingly, the previous consolidation lasted for most of 2012. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we were in for another year of choppy sideways trade in gold, which is bad news for gold zealots but wonderful for gold traders. Especially if we see gold beginning to build a base at this level. If the consolidation continues, I believe it’s possible that by 2015 we’ll resume our upward path and the gold bulls will be back in charge.

Gold Trade Details:

The break down last Wednesday represents a 3% correction below the line.

In the previous consolidation phase there were two significant contra movements: A 5.90% and a 9.66% deviation above the line. I would thus start accumulating gold on a 5% dip below the 144-SMA all the way down to 7.5%. Your stop loss should be set at 12% below the 144-SMA.

A quick “napkin” calculation based on where we’re trading this week gives you your first entry point at $1,215/oz and you can continue buying all the way down to the $1,180/oz double bottom.

Your conservative profit target would then be $1,330/oz for a 10% ungeared movement.

The Other Side: The “Experts” have a different opinion…

The analysts at SocGen seem to hold a far more bearish view.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Societe Generale raised its near-term gold forecast, but said it remains very bearish over the medium to long term and continues to recommend selling gold rallies.

In a note dated Wednesday, it raised its 2014 average gold price forecast to $1,272 an ounce, attributing the increase to support from the Crimean crisis. Reports said the previous forecast was $1,180. Prices for the August gold futures contract GCQ4 -0.07% traded at $1,253.70 an ounce on Comex Thursday.

But Societe Generale said gold is likely to trade well below $1,200 next year, and to break below $1,000 in 2016 when the Federal Reserve is “likely to hike rates at a much faster pace than currently discounted by the market.”

Overall, the determination of the members of the Fed to “maintain the U.S. monetary policy towards tapering and gradual but protracted policy normalisation, including rising interest rates as the economic outlook continues to improve, underpin our bearish view about the gold price in the medium term,” they said.

As a result, it expects the gold price to average just $825 between 2017 and 2019.

– Excerpt Market Watch, “Societe Generale sees 2017-2019 gold price average of $825”, June 6th 2014

Now, Societe Generale might very well be correct, but if you are planning to sell rallies, rather than accumulating, the one thing I can say with certainty is, you should be watching the mysterious 144-Day Moving Average!